Alain L. Sanders is an associate professor in the Political Science Department of Saint Peter’s College, where he teaches a wide variety of courses on U.S. politics. Professor Sanders has examined the upcoming presidential election to provide some insights on what voters can expect.
What are the main issues in the upcoming election?
The most important issues will be the economy and unemployment, since many people are still unemployed or underemployed. Much of the debate and discussion will focus on which of the two major party presidential candidates has a better program to revive the economy. Additionally, many other issues–such as education, taxes, the environment, immigration, health care, and minority and women’s rights–are also likely to be argued on the basis of their economic or employment impact.
Who do you predict the Republican candidate will be and to what would you attribute his success?
Presumably Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate. He has been the candidate to beat since the beginning of the primary cycle. And he has outlasted everyone because of the money and organization he has been able to assemble. The other Republican candidates have had their moments, but all of them have shriveled because they lacked Romney’s money and organization. This is yet another reminder that our presidential nominating process is one heavily beholden to money, and the organization and attack ads that money can purchase. The process is not one necessarily dedicated to even-handed, high-level, democratic discourse.
Romney’s most basic problems in the general election will be to establish credibility and generate enthusiasm, essentially the same problems he has faced in the primary cycle. This is because Romney has shifted many of his positions 180-degrees. As governor of Massachusetts, he served as a moderate Republican as this was the political position necessary to win elections in that state. He has since made the strategic decision to become a very conservative candidate in order to appeal to the very different electorate that votes in Republican presidential primaries. This has forced him to back track on some key positions, and many voters have been unsettled by this shift.
Do you feel that the contest among the candidates in the Republican primaries will impact the outcome of the overall election?
Unfortunately for the Republican Party, the contest in the primaries led the candidates to position themselves on the extreme conservative end of some controversial social issues. The Obama campaign is likely to exploit these extreme positions, and the Republican candidate’s success will depend significantly on his ability to re-establish mainstream views on some of these major social issues. General elections are won by convincing voters in the political middle, and not those on the outer political edges.
What are some challenges that the Democratic Party will face in the upcoming election?
While President Obama is a great campaigner, he has proved to be a weak executive leader. He has advocated bipartisanship, but a bipartisanship of consensus–and not a bipartisanship of political deal-making, one based on a calculated, hard-nosed exchange of incentives and disincentives. Consensus is a recipe for gridlock in our system. It gives everyone, and most especially one’s opponents, a veto. As a result, President Obama has had to make compromises that have seriously diluted his programs across the board and disenchanted many of his original Democratic supporters. And so, like Romney, Obama now faces an enthusiasm gap.
What is your overall view of the 2012 presidential election?
The fact of the matter is that both the Republican and Democratic parties have produced extremely weak candidates. Since it takes such a phenomenal amount of money to run a political campaign, the best fundraisers tend to be the last ones standing, not necessarily the strongest ones politically. On the Republican side, Romney and his money have outlasted everyone else. On the Democratic side, Obama’s fundraising monopoly has kept every challenger away.
What advice would you give to students who are considering the issues to make an informed decision?
Start paying attention to the news. When you are young, it’s very hard to believe that some of the policies being debated in Washington are relevant to you. Once you begin the habit of following the news, however, you will realize that many of the issues–taxes, jobs, health care, education, civil rights–really do impact young people.
Prior to joining the Saint Peter’s College faculty, Professor Sanders was a journalist for 21 years and worked as a senior reporter for TIME Magazine. During his career in journalism, he appeared on a variety of radio and television talk shows to discuss and analyze political developments. As a lawyer, Professor Sanders practiced briefly with a New York City law firm early in his career. He holds an A.B. from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and a J.D. from Columbia University’s School of Law.
If you are interested in speaking with Professor Sanders, please contact Angeline Boyer, media relations officer, at (201) 761-6238 or aboyer1@spc.edu.